Solving CLT with Exponential Distributions











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I am working on a CLT problem and am a bit stuck.



The problem:



N1 = 10,000 with claims X1 ~ Exp() with mean = 100



N2 = 3000 with claims X2 ~ Exp() with mean = 200



N3 = 1000 with claims X3 ~ Exp() with mean 1000



All independent, find the Value at Risk for 99%



What I have done so far:



To find the $lambda$ for each of the exponential distributions from the mean:



E[X] = mean and E[X] = $1overlambda$ for Exp()



So...



X1 ~ Exp($lambda$) = $1over lambda$ = 100 so $lambda$ = .01



X2 ~ Exp($lambda$) = $1over lambda$ = 200 so $lambda$ = .005



X3 ~ Exp($lambda$) = $1over lambda$ = 1000 so $lambda$ = .001



With this...



E[X1] = 100 / E[X2] = 200 / E[X3] = 1000



Var[X1] = $1over (.01)^2$ = 10,000



Var[X2] = $1over (.005)^2$ = 40,000



Var[X3] = $1over (.001)^2$ = 1,000,000



Then...



E[S] = 100(N1) + 200(N2) + 1000(N3) = (100)(10,000) + (200)(3000) + (1000)(1000) = 2,600,000



Var[S] = 10,000(N1) + 40,000(N2) + 1,000,000(N3) = (10,000)(10,000) + (40,000)(3000) + (1,000,000)(1000) = 10,220,000,000



So using the CLT then...



$ S - 2,600,000 over sqrt 10,220,000,000$ $le$ 2.326



Is this the correct approach? These numbers seem a little bit off to me.










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    up vote
    1
    down vote

    favorite












    I am working on a CLT problem and am a bit stuck.



    The problem:



    N1 = 10,000 with claims X1 ~ Exp() with mean = 100



    N2 = 3000 with claims X2 ~ Exp() with mean = 200



    N3 = 1000 with claims X3 ~ Exp() with mean 1000



    All independent, find the Value at Risk for 99%



    What I have done so far:



    To find the $lambda$ for each of the exponential distributions from the mean:



    E[X] = mean and E[X] = $1overlambda$ for Exp()



    So...



    X1 ~ Exp($lambda$) = $1over lambda$ = 100 so $lambda$ = .01



    X2 ~ Exp($lambda$) = $1over lambda$ = 200 so $lambda$ = .005



    X3 ~ Exp($lambda$) = $1over lambda$ = 1000 so $lambda$ = .001



    With this...



    E[X1] = 100 / E[X2] = 200 / E[X3] = 1000



    Var[X1] = $1over (.01)^2$ = 10,000



    Var[X2] = $1over (.005)^2$ = 40,000



    Var[X3] = $1over (.001)^2$ = 1,000,000



    Then...



    E[S] = 100(N1) + 200(N2) + 1000(N3) = (100)(10,000) + (200)(3000) + (1000)(1000) = 2,600,000



    Var[S] = 10,000(N1) + 40,000(N2) + 1,000,000(N3) = (10,000)(10,000) + (40,000)(3000) + (1,000,000)(1000) = 10,220,000,000



    So using the CLT then...



    $ S - 2,600,000 over sqrt 10,220,000,000$ $le$ 2.326



    Is this the correct approach? These numbers seem a little bit off to me.










    share|cite|improve this question


























      up vote
      1
      down vote

      favorite









      up vote
      1
      down vote

      favorite











      I am working on a CLT problem and am a bit stuck.



      The problem:



      N1 = 10,000 with claims X1 ~ Exp() with mean = 100



      N2 = 3000 with claims X2 ~ Exp() with mean = 200



      N3 = 1000 with claims X3 ~ Exp() with mean 1000



      All independent, find the Value at Risk for 99%



      What I have done so far:



      To find the $lambda$ for each of the exponential distributions from the mean:



      E[X] = mean and E[X] = $1overlambda$ for Exp()



      So...



      X1 ~ Exp($lambda$) = $1over lambda$ = 100 so $lambda$ = .01



      X2 ~ Exp($lambda$) = $1over lambda$ = 200 so $lambda$ = .005



      X3 ~ Exp($lambda$) = $1over lambda$ = 1000 so $lambda$ = .001



      With this...



      E[X1] = 100 / E[X2] = 200 / E[X3] = 1000



      Var[X1] = $1over (.01)^2$ = 10,000



      Var[X2] = $1over (.005)^2$ = 40,000



      Var[X3] = $1over (.001)^2$ = 1,000,000



      Then...



      E[S] = 100(N1) + 200(N2) + 1000(N3) = (100)(10,000) + (200)(3000) + (1000)(1000) = 2,600,000



      Var[S] = 10,000(N1) + 40,000(N2) + 1,000,000(N3) = (10,000)(10,000) + (40,000)(3000) + (1,000,000)(1000) = 10,220,000,000



      So using the CLT then...



      $ S - 2,600,000 over sqrt 10,220,000,000$ $le$ 2.326



      Is this the correct approach? These numbers seem a little bit off to me.










      share|cite|improve this question















      I am working on a CLT problem and am a bit stuck.



      The problem:



      N1 = 10,000 with claims X1 ~ Exp() with mean = 100



      N2 = 3000 with claims X2 ~ Exp() with mean = 200



      N3 = 1000 with claims X3 ~ Exp() with mean 1000



      All independent, find the Value at Risk for 99%



      What I have done so far:



      To find the $lambda$ for each of the exponential distributions from the mean:



      E[X] = mean and E[X] = $1overlambda$ for Exp()



      So...



      X1 ~ Exp($lambda$) = $1over lambda$ = 100 so $lambda$ = .01



      X2 ~ Exp($lambda$) = $1over lambda$ = 200 so $lambda$ = .005



      X3 ~ Exp($lambda$) = $1over lambda$ = 1000 so $lambda$ = .001



      With this...



      E[X1] = 100 / E[X2] = 200 / E[X3] = 1000



      Var[X1] = $1over (.01)^2$ = 10,000



      Var[X2] = $1over (.005)^2$ = 40,000



      Var[X3] = $1over (.001)^2$ = 1,000,000



      Then...



      E[S] = 100(N1) + 200(N2) + 1000(N3) = (100)(10,000) + (200)(3000) + (1000)(1000) = 2,600,000



      Var[S] = 10,000(N1) + 40,000(N2) + 1,000,000(N3) = (10,000)(10,000) + (40,000)(3000) + (1,000,000)(1000) = 10,220,000,000



      So using the CLT then...



      $ S - 2,600,000 over sqrt 10,220,000,000$ $le$ 2.326



      Is this the correct approach? These numbers seem a little bit off to me.







      probability probability-theory probability-distributions central-limit-theorem






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      edited Dec 4 at 1:57

























      asked Dec 3 at 18:47









      Ethan

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