Compound Binomial - Exponential process












1












$begingroup$


Problem:



I have a sum of $N$ random variables $X_i$, where $N$ is distributed according to a binomial distribution and the $X_i$ are independent and identically distributed according to an exponential distribution.
I would like to get the pdf of the sum



$$ Y_N = X_1 + X_2 + dots + X_N. $$



If I write the pmf of $N$ as
$$ p_n = {N choose n} p^n q^{N-n}$$
and the pdf of the $X_i$ as
$$ f(x) = lambda e^{-lambda x},$$
How can I get the pdf $p(y)$ of $Y_N$?



Attempt:



I gather this is called a compound process. I read about it somewhat in Feller: the section is "Sum of a Random Number of Random Variables", but he does not mix discrete and continuous random variables.
I think this is just a discrete time random walk where the steps are exponentially distributed.



I think I can condition something like
$$text{Prob}(Y_N = y) = sum_{n=0}^N text{Prob}(N=n)text{Prob}(X_1 + dots +X_n = y),$$
and this will become



$$p(y) = sum_{n=1}^N p_n f^{n*}(y),$$



but I'm not actually sure how to write the $n$-fold convolution of exponentials (although this should be a Gamma distribution I think).

So, first interjection: is it this?



$$ f^{n*}(y) = int dx_1dots dx_n f(x_1)f(x_2-x_1)f(x_3-x_2-x_1)dots f(y-x_n-dots x_1)?$$



or is it this?



$$ f^{n*}(y) = int dx_1dots dx_n f(y-x_n)f(x_n-x_{n-1})dots f(x_2-x_1)f(x_1)?$$



Then I know I can take a laplace transform to simplify the convolution (although I'm not sure what the convolution should look like exactly yet), to get something like



$$ p(s) = sum_{n=0}^N p_n f(s)^n$$



Does this make sense? Then this is the probability generating function of $p_n$ evaluated at $f(s)$:



$$ G(z) = langle z^n rangle|_{z=f(s)} = sum_{n=0}^N z^n p_n |_{z=f(s)}$$



So the mgf for $ p(y)$ is the pgf for $p_n$ evaluated at the mgf for f(x): Is this correct?



(using this link to keep my words straight)



Following through, the pgf of the binomial distribution $p_n$ is



$$ G(z) = sum_{i=0}^N {N choose i} (zp)^i q^{N-i} = (zp + q)^N,$$



(verified correct here)
and the mgf of the exponential distribution $f(x)$ is



$$ f(s) = int_0^infty dx lambda e^{(s-lambda)x} = frac{lambda}{lambda -s} $$



(verified correct here).
So the mgf for $p(y)$ will be



$$ p(s) = (pfrac{lambda}{lambda-s}+q)^N. $$



So for example the mean value of $Y$ should be



$$mu_Y = frac{d}{ds}(pfrac{lambda}{lambda-s}+q)^N|_{s=0} = N (pfrac{lambda}{lambda-s}+q)^{N-1} pfrac{lambda}{(lambda-s)^2}|_{s=0} = Nplambda^{-1}. $$
(Fixed an error thanks to Clement)



The probability distribution should be the inverse fourier transform of the characteristic function $p(s=ik)$:



$$p(y) = int_{-infty}^{infty} frac{dk}{2pi} e^{-iky}(frac{plambda}{lambda-ik}+p)^N$$



Any thoughts on this integral are appreciated !










share|cite|improve this question











$endgroup$








  • 1




    $begingroup$
    This is correct. This is the simplest way - to find mgf of $Y_N$ from pgf of $N$.
    $endgroup$
    – NCh
    Dec 14 '18 at 1:24










  • $begingroup$
    @NCh can you comment on the proper way for me to write the convolution integral of $N$ distributions? And any idea why I get a negative mean value for Y?
    $endgroup$
    – kevinkayaks
    Dec 14 '18 at 1:49






  • 1




    $begingroup$
    Oh I see that now! I missed a minus. Thanks @ClementC.
    $endgroup$
    – kevinkayaks
    Dec 14 '18 at 1:55






  • 1




    $begingroup$
    You can check that the expectation is correct: $$mathbb{E}[Y_N]= mathbb{E}[mathbb{E}[Y_Nmid N]]= mathbb{E}[mathbb{E}[sum_{k=1}^N X_kmid N]]= mathbb{E}[Ncdot frac{1}{lambda}] = frac{np}{lambda}$$
    $endgroup$
    – Clement C.
    Dec 14 '18 at 1:59






  • 1




    $begingroup$
    @kevinkayaks $f^{n*}(y)=iint f(x_1)f(x_2)ldots f(x_{n-1}) f(y-x_1-x_2-ldots-x_{n-1}),dx_1,dx_2ldots dx_{n-1}$. And you can prove that sum of i.i.d. exponential r.v.'s is Gamma distributed without n-fold convolution, only from convolution of two pdf's, by induction.
    $endgroup$
    – NCh
    Dec 14 '18 at 12:11
















1












$begingroup$


Problem:



I have a sum of $N$ random variables $X_i$, where $N$ is distributed according to a binomial distribution and the $X_i$ are independent and identically distributed according to an exponential distribution.
I would like to get the pdf of the sum



$$ Y_N = X_1 + X_2 + dots + X_N. $$



If I write the pmf of $N$ as
$$ p_n = {N choose n} p^n q^{N-n}$$
and the pdf of the $X_i$ as
$$ f(x) = lambda e^{-lambda x},$$
How can I get the pdf $p(y)$ of $Y_N$?



Attempt:



I gather this is called a compound process. I read about it somewhat in Feller: the section is "Sum of a Random Number of Random Variables", but he does not mix discrete and continuous random variables.
I think this is just a discrete time random walk where the steps are exponentially distributed.



I think I can condition something like
$$text{Prob}(Y_N = y) = sum_{n=0}^N text{Prob}(N=n)text{Prob}(X_1 + dots +X_n = y),$$
and this will become



$$p(y) = sum_{n=1}^N p_n f^{n*}(y),$$



but I'm not actually sure how to write the $n$-fold convolution of exponentials (although this should be a Gamma distribution I think).

So, first interjection: is it this?



$$ f^{n*}(y) = int dx_1dots dx_n f(x_1)f(x_2-x_1)f(x_3-x_2-x_1)dots f(y-x_n-dots x_1)?$$



or is it this?



$$ f^{n*}(y) = int dx_1dots dx_n f(y-x_n)f(x_n-x_{n-1})dots f(x_2-x_1)f(x_1)?$$



Then I know I can take a laplace transform to simplify the convolution (although I'm not sure what the convolution should look like exactly yet), to get something like



$$ p(s) = sum_{n=0}^N p_n f(s)^n$$



Does this make sense? Then this is the probability generating function of $p_n$ evaluated at $f(s)$:



$$ G(z) = langle z^n rangle|_{z=f(s)} = sum_{n=0}^N z^n p_n |_{z=f(s)}$$



So the mgf for $ p(y)$ is the pgf for $p_n$ evaluated at the mgf for f(x): Is this correct?



(using this link to keep my words straight)



Following through, the pgf of the binomial distribution $p_n$ is



$$ G(z) = sum_{i=0}^N {N choose i} (zp)^i q^{N-i} = (zp + q)^N,$$



(verified correct here)
and the mgf of the exponential distribution $f(x)$ is



$$ f(s) = int_0^infty dx lambda e^{(s-lambda)x} = frac{lambda}{lambda -s} $$



(verified correct here).
So the mgf for $p(y)$ will be



$$ p(s) = (pfrac{lambda}{lambda-s}+q)^N. $$



So for example the mean value of $Y$ should be



$$mu_Y = frac{d}{ds}(pfrac{lambda}{lambda-s}+q)^N|_{s=0} = N (pfrac{lambda}{lambda-s}+q)^{N-1} pfrac{lambda}{(lambda-s)^2}|_{s=0} = Nplambda^{-1}. $$
(Fixed an error thanks to Clement)



The probability distribution should be the inverse fourier transform of the characteristic function $p(s=ik)$:



$$p(y) = int_{-infty}^{infty} frac{dk}{2pi} e^{-iky}(frac{plambda}{lambda-ik}+p)^N$$



Any thoughts on this integral are appreciated !










share|cite|improve this question











$endgroup$








  • 1




    $begingroup$
    This is correct. This is the simplest way - to find mgf of $Y_N$ from pgf of $N$.
    $endgroup$
    – NCh
    Dec 14 '18 at 1:24










  • $begingroup$
    @NCh can you comment on the proper way for me to write the convolution integral of $N$ distributions? And any idea why I get a negative mean value for Y?
    $endgroup$
    – kevinkayaks
    Dec 14 '18 at 1:49






  • 1




    $begingroup$
    Oh I see that now! I missed a minus. Thanks @ClementC.
    $endgroup$
    – kevinkayaks
    Dec 14 '18 at 1:55






  • 1




    $begingroup$
    You can check that the expectation is correct: $$mathbb{E}[Y_N]= mathbb{E}[mathbb{E}[Y_Nmid N]]= mathbb{E}[mathbb{E}[sum_{k=1}^N X_kmid N]]= mathbb{E}[Ncdot frac{1}{lambda}] = frac{np}{lambda}$$
    $endgroup$
    – Clement C.
    Dec 14 '18 at 1:59






  • 1




    $begingroup$
    @kevinkayaks $f^{n*}(y)=iint f(x_1)f(x_2)ldots f(x_{n-1}) f(y-x_1-x_2-ldots-x_{n-1}),dx_1,dx_2ldots dx_{n-1}$. And you can prove that sum of i.i.d. exponential r.v.'s is Gamma distributed without n-fold convolution, only from convolution of two pdf's, by induction.
    $endgroup$
    – NCh
    Dec 14 '18 at 12:11














1












1








1





$begingroup$


Problem:



I have a sum of $N$ random variables $X_i$, where $N$ is distributed according to a binomial distribution and the $X_i$ are independent and identically distributed according to an exponential distribution.
I would like to get the pdf of the sum



$$ Y_N = X_1 + X_2 + dots + X_N. $$



If I write the pmf of $N$ as
$$ p_n = {N choose n} p^n q^{N-n}$$
and the pdf of the $X_i$ as
$$ f(x) = lambda e^{-lambda x},$$
How can I get the pdf $p(y)$ of $Y_N$?



Attempt:



I gather this is called a compound process. I read about it somewhat in Feller: the section is "Sum of a Random Number of Random Variables", but he does not mix discrete and continuous random variables.
I think this is just a discrete time random walk where the steps are exponentially distributed.



I think I can condition something like
$$text{Prob}(Y_N = y) = sum_{n=0}^N text{Prob}(N=n)text{Prob}(X_1 + dots +X_n = y),$$
and this will become



$$p(y) = sum_{n=1}^N p_n f^{n*}(y),$$



but I'm not actually sure how to write the $n$-fold convolution of exponentials (although this should be a Gamma distribution I think).

So, first interjection: is it this?



$$ f^{n*}(y) = int dx_1dots dx_n f(x_1)f(x_2-x_1)f(x_3-x_2-x_1)dots f(y-x_n-dots x_1)?$$



or is it this?



$$ f^{n*}(y) = int dx_1dots dx_n f(y-x_n)f(x_n-x_{n-1})dots f(x_2-x_1)f(x_1)?$$



Then I know I can take a laplace transform to simplify the convolution (although I'm not sure what the convolution should look like exactly yet), to get something like



$$ p(s) = sum_{n=0}^N p_n f(s)^n$$



Does this make sense? Then this is the probability generating function of $p_n$ evaluated at $f(s)$:



$$ G(z) = langle z^n rangle|_{z=f(s)} = sum_{n=0}^N z^n p_n |_{z=f(s)}$$



So the mgf for $ p(y)$ is the pgf for $p_n$ evaluated at the mgf for f(x): Is this correct?



(using this link to keep my words straight)



Following through, the pgf of the binomial distribution $p_n$ is



$$ G(z) = sum_{i=0}^N {N choose i} (zp)^i q^{N-i} = (zp + q)^N,$$



(verified correct here)
and the mgf of the exponential distribution $f(x)$ is



$$ f(s) = int_0^infty dx lambda e^{(s-lambda)x} = frac{lambda}{lambda -s} $$



(verified correct here).
So the mgf for $p(y)$ will be



$$ p(s) = (pfrac{lambda}{lambda-s}+q)^N. $$



So for example the mean value of $Y$ should be



$$mu_Y = frac{d}{ds}(pfrac{lambda}{lambda-s}+q)^N|_{s=0} = N (pfrac{lambda}{lambda-s}+q)^{N-1} pfrac{lambda}{(lambda-s)^2}|_{s=0} = Nplambda^{-1}. $$
(Fixed an error thanks to Clement)



The probability distribution should be the inverse fourier transform of the characteristic function $p(s=ik)$:



$$p(y) = int_{-infty}^{infty} frac{dk}{2pi} e^{-iky}(frac{plambda}{lambda-ik}+p)^N$$



Any thoughts on this integral are appreciated !










share|cite|improve this question











$endgroup$




Problem:



I have a sum of $N$ random variables $X_i$, where $N$ is distributed according to a binomial distribution and the $X_i$ are independent and identically distributed according to an exponential distribution.
I would like to get the pdf of the sum



$$ Y_N = X_1 + X_2 + dots + X_N. $$



If I write the pmf of $N$ as
$$ p_n = {N choose n} p^n q^{N-n}$$
and the pdf of the $X_i$ as
$$ f(x) = lambda e^{-lambda x},$$
How can I get the pdf $p(y)$ of $Y_N$?



Attempt:



I gather this is called a compound process. I read about it somewhat in Feller: the section is "Sum of a Random Number of Random Variables", but he does not mix discrete and continuous random variables.
I think this is just a discrete time random walk where the steps are exponentially distributed.



I think I can condition something like
$$text{Prob}(Y_N = y) = sum_{n=0}^N text{Prob}(N=n)text{Prob}(X_1 + dots +X_n = y),$$
and this will become



$$p(y) = sum_{n=1}^N p_n f^{n*}(y),$$



but I'm not actually sure how to write the $n$-fold convolution of exponentials (although this should be a Gamma distribution I think).

So, first interjection: is it this?



$$ f^{n*}(y) = int dx_1dots dx_n f(x_1)f(x_2-x_1)f(x_3-x_2-x_1)dots f(y-x_n-dots x_1)?$$



or is it this?



$$ f^{n*}(y) = int dx_1dots dx_n f(y-x_n)f(x_n-x_{n-1})dots f(x_2-x_1)f(x_1)?$$



Then I know I can take a laplace transform to simplify the convolution (although I'm not sure what the convolution should look like exactly yet), to get something like



$$ p(s) = sum_{n=0}^N p_n f(s)^n$$



Does this make sense? Then this is the probability generating function of $p_n$ evaluated at $f(s)$:



$$ G(z) = langle z^n rangle|_{z=f(s)} = sum_{n=0}^N z^n p_n |_{z=f(s)}$$



So the mgf for $ p(y)$ is the pgf for $p_n$ evaluated at the mgf for f(x): Is this correct?



(using this link to keep my words straight)



Following through, the pgf of the binomial distribution $p_n$ is



$$ G(z) = sum_{i=0}^N {N choose i} (zp)^i q^{N-i} = (zp + q)^N,$$



(verified correct here)
and the mgf of the exponential distribution $f(x)$ is



$$ f(s) = int_0^infty dx lambda e^{(s-lambda)x} = frac{lambda}{lambda -s} $$



(verified correct here).
So the mgf for $p(y)$ will be



$$ p(s) = (pfrac{lambda}{lambda-s}+q)^N. $$



So for example the mean value of $Y$ should be



$$mu_Y = frac{d}{ds}(pfrac{lambda}{lambda-s}+q)^N|_{s=0} = N (pfrac{lambda}{lambda-s}+q)^{N-1} pfrac{lambda}{(lambda-s)^2}|_{s=0} = Nplambda^{-1}. $$
(Fixed an error thanks to Clement)



The probability distribution should be the inverse fourier transform of the characteristic function $p(s=ik)$:



$$p(y) = int_{-infty}^{infty} frac{dk}{2pi} e^{-iky}(frac{plambda}{lambda-ik}+p)^N$$



Any thoughts on this integral are appreciated !







probability stochastic-processes random-walk






share|cite|improve this question















share|cite|improve this question













share|cite|improve this question




share|cite|improve this question








edited Dec 14 '18 at 19:23







kevinkayaks

















asked Dec 14 '18 at 0:58









kevinkayakskevinkayaks

1558




1558








  • 1




    $begingroup$
    This is correct. This is the simplest way - to find mgf of $Y_N$ from pgf of $N$.
    $endgroup$
    – NCh
    Dec 14 '18 at 1:24










  • $begingroup$
    @NCh can you comment on the proper way for me to write the convolution integral of $N$ distributions? And any idea why I get a negative mean value for Y?
    $endgroup$
    – kevinkayaks
    Dec 14 '18 at 1:49






  • 1




    $begingroup$
    Oh I see that now! I missed a minus. Thanks @ClementC.
    $endgroup$
    – kevinkayaks
    Dec 14 '18 at 1:55






  • 1




    $begingroup$
    You can check that the expectation is correct: $$mathbb{E}[Y_N]= mathbb{E}[mathbb{E}[Y_Nmid N]]= mathbb{E}[mathbb{E}[sum_{k=1}^N X_kmid N]]= mathbb{E}[Ncdot frac{1}{lambda}] = frac{np}{lambda}$$
    $endgroup$
    – Clement C.
    Dec 14 '18 at 1:59






  • 1




    $begingroup$
    @kevinkayaks $f^{n*}(y)=iint f(x_1)f(x_2)ldots f(x_{n-1}) f(y-x_1-x_2-ldots-x_{n-1}),dx_1,dx_2ldots dx_{n-1}$. And you can prove that sum of i.i.d. exponential r.v.'s is Gamma distributed without n-fold convolution, only from convolution of two pdf's, by induction.
    $endgroup$
    – NCh
    Dec 14 '18 at 12:11














  • 1




    $begingroup$
    This is correct. This is the simplest way - to find mgf of $Y_N$ from pgf of $N$.
    $endgroup$
    – NCh
    Dec 14 '18 at 1:24










  • $begingroup$
    @NCh can you comment on the proper way for me to write the convolution integral of $N$ distributions? And any idea why I get a negative mean value for Y?
    $endgroup$
    – kevinkayaks
    Dec 14 '18 at 1:49






  • 1




    $begingroup$
    Oh I see that now! I missed a minus. Thanks @ClementC.
    $endgroup$
    – kevinkayaks
    Dec 14 '18 at 1:55






  • 1




    $begingroup$
    You can check that the expectation is correct: $$mathbb{E}[Y_N]= mathbb{E}[mathbb{E}[Y_Nmid N]]= mathbb{E}[mathbb{E}[sum_{k=1}^N X_kmid N]]= mathbb{E}[Ncdot frac{1}{lambda}] = frac{np}{lambda}$$
    $endgroup$
    – Clement C.
    Dec 14 '18 at 1:59






  • 1




    $begingroup$
    @kevinkayaks $f^{n*}(y)=iint f(x_1)f(x_2)ldots f(x_{n-1}) f(y-x_1-x_2-ldots-x_{n-1}),dx_1,dx_2ldots dx_{n-1}$. And you can prove that sum of i.i.d. exponential r.v.'s is Gamma distributed without n-fold convolution, only from convolution of two pdf's, by induction.
    $endgroup$
    – NCh
    Dec 14 '18 at 12:11








1




1




$begingroup$
This is correct. This is the simplest way - to find mgf of $Y_N$ from pgf of $N$.
$endgroup$
– NCh
Dec 14 '18 at 1:24




$begingroup$
This is correct. This is the simplest way - to find mgf of $Y_N$ from pgf of $N$.
$endgroup$
– NCh
Dec 14 '18 at 1:24












$begingroup$
@NCh can you comment on the proper way for me to write the convolution integral of $N$ distributions? And any idea why I get a negative mean value for Y?
$endgroup$
– kevinkayaks
Dec 14 '18 at 1:49




$begingroup$
@NCh can you comment on the proper way for me to write the convolution integral of $N$ distributions? And any idea why I get a negative mean value for Y?
$endgroup$
– kevinkayaks
Dec 14 '18 at 1:49




1




1




$begingroup$
Oh I see that now! I missed a minus. Thanks @ClementC.
$endgroup$
– kevinkayaks
Dec 14 '18 at 1:55




$begingroup$
Oh I see that now! I missed a minus. Thanks @ClementC.
$endgroup$
– kevinkayaks
Dec 14 '18 at 1:55




1




1




$begingroup$
You can check that the expectation is correct: $$mathbb{E}[Y_N]= mathbb{E}[mathbb{E}[Y_Nmid N]]= mathbb{E}[mathbb{E}[sum_{k=1}^N X_kmid N]]= mathbb{E}[Ncdot frac{1}{lambda}] = frac{np}{lambda}$$
$endgroup$
– Clement C.
Dec 14 '18 at 1:59




$begingroup$
You can check that the expectation is correct: $$mathbb{E}[Y_N]= mathbb{E}[mathbb{E}[Y_Nmid N]]= mathbb{E}[mathbb{E}[sum_{k=1}^N X_kmid N]]= mathbb{E}[Ncdot frac{1}{lambda}] = frac{np}{lambda}$$
$endgroup$
– Clement C.
Dec 14 '18 at 1:59




1




1




$begingroup$
@kevinkayaks $f^{n*}(y)=iint f(x_1)f(x_2)ldots f(x_{n-1}) f(y-x_1-x_2-ldots-x_{n-1}),dx_1,dx_2ldots dx_{n-1}$. And you can prove that sum of i.i.d. exponential r.v.'s is Gamma distributed without n-fold convolution, only from convolution of two pdf's, by induction.
$endgroup$
– NCh
Dec 14 '18 at 12:11




$begingroup$
@kevinkayaks $f^{n*}(y)=iint f(x_1)f(x_2)ldots f(x_{n-1}) f(y-x_1-x_2-ldots-x_{n-1}),dx_1,dx_2ldots dx_{n-1}$. And you can prove that sum of i.i.d. exponential r.v.'s is Gamma distributed without n-fold convolution, only from convolution of two pdf's, by induction.
$endgroup$
– NCh
Dec 14 '18 at 12:11










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