Decision theory problem - probability or without probability?
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A departmental store with a bakery section is faced with problem of how many cakes to buy in order to meet the day's demand. The deparrtmental store prefers not to sell day old cakes, so left over cakes are complete loss. on the other hand, if a customer desires a cake but all of them have been sold, he will buy elsewhere and the sales will be lost. The store has therefore collected info on the past sales based on selected 100 day period as shown in the table below:
sales per day 15 16 17 18
No of days 20 40 30 10
Now my question is , as total number of days is 100, is it necessary to take probability as 20/100, 40/100, 30/100 , 10/100 or we can directly do it with the number of days? Answer will just two decimal point difference. please reply someone
decision-theory
asked Dec 1 at 3:53
Inderjit Lal
4
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Inderjit Lal is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
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up vote
-3
down vote
favorite
A departmental store with a bakery section is faced with problem of how many cakes to buy in order to meet the day's demand. The deparrtmental store prefers not to sell day old cakes, so left over cakes are complete loss. on the other hand, if a customer desires a cake but all of them have been sold, he will buy elsewhere and the sales will be lost. The store has therefore collected info on the past sales based on selected 100 day period as shown in the table below:
sales per day 15 16 17 18
No of days 20 40 30 10
Now my question is , as total number of days is 100, is it necessary to take probability as 20/100, 40/100, 30/100 , 10/100 or we can directly do it with the number of days? Answer will just two decimal point difference. please reply someone
decision-theory
asked Dec 1 at 3:53
Inderjit Lal
4
New contributor
Inderjit Lal is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
Check out our Code of Conduct.
Based on the info you have, how many cakes would you expect to sell on any given day?
– Patricio
Dec 1 at 4:20
Sorry I forgot to add that, Cost price of a cake is 75 and Selling price is 100, so profit is 25, opportunity loss is 5.
– Inderjit Lal
Dec 1 at 4:32
You need to calculate the probabilities and choose a suitable decision rule. See this source for similar problem.
– farruhota
Dec 1 at 4:32
I understood, but in the above solution the number of day was 250 hence it was necessary to calculate the probability, in this case total days was 100, so can't we calculate for the days directly ?
– Inderjit Lal
Dec 1 at 4:34
The probability of selling 15 cakes is $p=.2=20%$, so you have to divide by the total number of days.
– Patricio
2 days ago
|
show 2 more comments
up vote
-3
down vote
favorite
up vote
-3
down vote
favorite
A departmental store with a bakery section is faced with problem of how many cakes to buy in order to meet the day's demand. The deparrtmental store prefers not to sell day old cakes, so left over cakes are complete loss. on the other hand, if a customer desires a cake but all of them have been sold, he will buy elsewhere and the sales will be lost. The store has therefore collected info on the past sales based on selected 100 day period as shown in the table below:
sales per day 15 16 17 18
No of days 20 40 30 10
Now my question is , as total number of days is 100, is it necessary to take probability as 20/100, 40/100, 30/100 , 10/100 or we can directly do it with the number of days? Answer will just two decimal point difference. please reply someone
decision-theory
asked Dec 1 at 3:53
Inderjit Lal
4
New contributor
Inderjit Lal is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
Check out our Code of Conduct.
A departmental store with a bakery section is faced with problem of how many cakes to buy in order to meet the day's demand. The deparrtmental store prefers not to sell day old cakes, so left over cakes are complete loss. on the other hand, if a customer desires a cake but all of them have been sold, he will buy elsewhere and the sales will be lost. The store has therefore collected info on the past sales based on selected 100 day period as shown in the table below:
sales per day 15 16 17 18
No of days 20 40 30 10
Now my question is , as total number of days is 100, is it necessary to take probability as 20/100, 40/100, 30/100 , 10/100 or we can directly do it with the number of days? Answer will just two decimal point difference. please reply someone
decision-theory
decision-theory
asked Dec 1 at 3:53
Inderjit Lal
4
New contributor
Inderjit Lal is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
Check out our Code of Conduct.
asked Dec 1 at 3:53
Inderjit Lal
4
New contributor
Inderjit Lal is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
Check out our Code of Conduct.
asked Dec 1 at 3:53
Inderjit Lal
4
New contributor
Inderjit Lal is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
Check out our Code of Conduct.
asked Dec 1 at 3:53
Inderjit Lal
4
asked Dec 1 at 3:53
Inderjit Lal
4
4
New contributor
Inderjit Lal is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
Check out our Code of Conduct.
New contributor
Inderjit Lal is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
Check out our Code of Conduct.
Inderjit Lal is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
Check out our Code of Conduct.
Based on the info you have, how many cakes would you expect to sell on any given day?
– Patricio
Dec 1 at 4:20
Sorry I forgot to add that, Cost price of a cake is 75 and Selling price is 100, so profit is 25, opportunity loss is 5.
– Inderjit Lal
Dec 1 at 4:32
You need to calculate the probabilities and choose a suitable decision rule. See this source for similar problem.
– farruhota
Dec 1 at 4:32
I understood, but in the above solution the number of day was 250 hence it was necessary to calculate the probability, in this case total days was 100, so can't we calculate for the days directly ?
– Inderjit Lal
Dec 1 at 4:34
The probability of selling 15 cakes is $p=.2=20%$, so you have to divide by the total number of days.
– Patricio
2 days ago
|
show 2 more comments
Based on the info you have, how many cakes would you expect to sell on any given day?
– Patricio
Dec 1 at 4:20
Sorry I forgot to add that, Cost price of a cake is 75 and Selling price is 100, so profit is 25, opportunity loss is 5.
– Inderjit Lal
Dec 1 at 4:32
You need to calculate the probabilities and choose a suitable decision rule. See this source for similar problem.
– farruhota
Dec 1 at 4:32
I understood, but in the above solution the number of day was 250 hence it was necessary to calculate the probability, in this case total days was 100, so can't we calculate for the days directly ?
– Inderjit Lal
Dec 1 at 4:34
The probability of selling 15 cakes is $p=.2=20%$, so you have to divide by the total number of days.
– Patricio
2 days ago
Based on the info you have, how many cakes would you expect to sell on any given day?
– Patricio
Dec 1 at 4:20
Based on the info you have, how many cakes would you expect to sell on any given day?
– Patricio
Dec 1 at 4:20
Sorry I forgot to add that, Cost price of a cake is 75 and Selling price is 100, so profit is 25, opportunity loss is 5.
– Inderjit Lal
Dec 1 at 4:32
Sorry I forgot to add that, Cost price of a cake is 75 and Selling price is 100, so profit is 25, opportunity loss is 5.
– Inderjit Lal
Dec 1 at 4:32
You need to calculate the probabilities and choose a suitable decision rule. See this source for similar problem.
– farruhota
Dec 1 at 4:32
You need to calculate the probabilities and choose a suitable decision rule. See this source for similar problem.
– farruhota
Dec 1 at 4:32
I understood, but in the above solution the number of day was 250 hence it was necessary to calculate the probability, in this case total days was 100, so can't we calculate for the days directly ?
– Inderjit Lal
Dec 1 at 4:34
I understood, but in the above solution the number of day was 250 hence it was necessary to calculate the probability, in this case total days was 100, so can't we calculate for the days directly ?
– Inderjit Lal
Dec 1 at 4:34
The probability of selling 15 cakes is $p=.2=20%$, so you have to divide by the total number of days.
– Patricio
2 days ago
The probability of selling 15 cakes is $p=.2=20%$, so you have to divide by the total number of days.
– Patricio
2 days ago
|
show 2 more comments
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Inderjit Lal is a new contributor. Be nice, and check out our Code of Conduct.
Inderjit Lal is a new contributor. Be nice, and check out our Code of Conduct.
Inderjit Lal is a new contributor. Be nice, and check out our Code of Conduct.
Inderjit Lal is a new contributor. Be nice, and check out our Code of Conduct.
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Based on the info you have, how many cakes would you expect to sell on any given day?
– Patricio
Dec 1 at 4:20
Sorry I forgot to add that, Cost price of a cake is 75 and Selling price is 100, so profit is 25, opportunity loss is 5.
– Inderjit Lal
Dec 1 at 4:32
You need to calculate the probabilities and choose a suitable decision rule. See this source for similar problem.
– farruhota
Dec 1 at 4:32
I understood, but in the above solution the number of day was 250 hence it was necessary to calculate the probability, in this case total days was 100, so can't we calculate for the days directly ?
– Inderjit Lal
Dec 1 at 4:34
The probability of selling 15 cakes is $p=.2=20%$, so you have to divide by the total number of days.
– Patricio
2 days ago