How do you compare the chances of two things which are theoretically possible, but have not occurred yet?
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An example I was thinking about was a player hitting 100 home runs in a season versus hitting 101 home runs in a season. And how would you compare an apples and oranges stat such as 100 home runs against 400 hits in a season?
probability
asked Jan 16 at 0:06
user209627user209627
91
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add a comment |
$begingroup$
An example I was thinking about was a player hitting 100 home runs in a season versus hitting 101 home runs in a season. And how would you compare an apples and oranges stat such as 100 home runs against 400 hits in a season?
probability
asked Jan 16 at 0:06
user209627user209627
91
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Well, you have to a model for predicting such things. Such a model would surely be based on all the available hitting statistics and would require a number of assumptions. Even with all of that, though, extrapolation of data to extremely unlikely scenarios is very, very unreliable.
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– lulu
Jan 16 at 0:48
add a comment |
$begingroup$
An example I was thinking about was a player hitting 100 home runs in a season versus hitting 101 home runs in a season. And how would you compare an apples and oranges stat such as 100 home runs against 400 hits in a season?
probability
asked Jan 16 at 0:06
user209627user209627
91
$endgroup$
An example I was thinking about was a player hitting 100 home runs in a season versus hitting 101 home runs in a season. And how would you compare an apples and oranges stat such as 100 home runs against 400 hits in a season?
probability
probability
asked Jan 16 at 0:06
user209627user209627
91
asked Jan 16 at 0:06
user209627user209627
91
asked Jan 16 at 0:06
user209627user209627
91
asked Jan 16 at 0:06
user209627user209627
91
asked Jan 16 at 0:06
user209627user209627
91
91
$begingroup$
Well, you have to a model for predicting such things. Such a model would surely be based on all the available hitting statistics and would require a number of assumptions. Even with all of that, though, extrapolation of data to extremely unlikely scenarios is very, very unreliable.
$endgroup$
– lulu
Jan 16 at 0:48
add a comment |
$begingroup$
Well, you have to a model for predicting such things. Such a model would surely be based on all the available hitting statistics and would require a number of assumptions. Even with all of that, though, extrapolation of data to extremely unlikely scenarios is very, very unreliable.
$endgroup$
– lulu
Jan 16 at 0:48
$begingroup$
Well, you have to a model for predicting such things. Such a model would surely be based on all the available hitting statistics and would require a number of assumptions. Even with all of that, though, extrapolation of data to extremely unlikely scenarios is very, very unreliable.
$endgroup$
– lulu
Jan 16 at 0:48
$begingroup$
Well, you have to a model for predicting such things. Such a model would surely be based on all the available hitting statistics and would require a number of assumptions. Even with all of that, though, extrapolation of data to extremely unlikely scenarios is very, very unreliable.
$endgroup$
– lulu
Jan 16 at 0:48
add a comment |
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$begingroup$
Well, you have to a model for predicting such things. Such a model would surely be based on all the available hitting statistics and would require a number of assumptions. Even with all of that, though, extrapolation of data to extremely unlikely scenarios is very, very unreliable.
$endgroup$
– lulu
Jan 16 at 0:48