Intuitively use marginalization
$begingroup$
Is it always true that if you sum over some variable then you can "remove" that varaible in each expression of the product inside the sum? For example:
$ sum_x P(x, y)P(y | x)P(y | x, z) = P(y)P(y)P(y|z)? $
It seems that this is often the case, but what I'm asking is if this is a general "rule" you can use?
probability probability-theory conditional-probability marginal-probability
$endgroup$
add a comment |
$begingroup$
Is it always true that if you sum over some variable then you can "remove" that varaible in each expression of the product inside the sum? For example:
$ sum_x P(x, y)P(y | x)P(y | x, z) = P(y)P(y)P(y|z)? $
It seems that this is often the case, but what I'm asking is if this is a general "rule" you can use?
probability probability-theory conditional-probability marginal-probability
$endgroup$
add a comment |
$begingroup$
Is it always true that if you sum over some variable then you can "remove" that varaible in each expression of the product inside the sum? For example:
$ sum_x P(x, y)P(y | x)P(y | x, z) = P(y)P(y)P(y|z)? $
It seems that this is often the case, but what I'm asking is if this is a general "rule" you can use?
probability probability-theory conditional-probability marginal-probability
$endgroup$
Is it always true that if you sum over some variable then you can "remove" that varaible in each expression of the product inside the sum? For example:
$ sum_x P(x, y)P(y | x)P(y | x, z) = P(y)P(y)P(y|z)? $
It seems that this is often the case, but what I'm asking is if this is a general "rule" you can use?
probability probability-theory conditional-probability marginal-probability
probability probability-theory conditional-probability marginal-probability
asked Dec 16 '18 at 19:28
FerusFerus
103
103
add a comment |
add a comment |
1 Answer
1
active
oldest
votes
$begingroup$
The notation you use is a little ambiguous, but in general the way you describe it, it is incorrect. For example, take $X, Y, Z$ as discrete random variables that are independent. Let $X$ take values $x_1, dots , x_n$. According to your conjecture we should find that,
$$sum_{i=1}^n mathbb{P}(X = x_i, Y = y) mathbb{P}(X = x_i, Z = z) = mathbb{P}(Y=y) mathbb{P}(Z = z) $$
But this is false since if $X, Y, Z$ are independent we obtain,
$$sum_{i=1}^n mathbb{P}(X = x_i) mathbb{P}(Y = y) mathbb{P}(X = x_i) mathbb{P}(Z = z) = mathbb{P}(Y=y) mathbb{P}(Z = z) sum_{i=1}^n mathbb{P}(X = x_i)^2 $$
The sum of squares of the probabilities is not in general 1, take $X sim text{Bernoulli}(p)$ for example; that is, $X$ takes value $1$ with probability $p$ and $0$ with probability $(1-p)$. We do have that $(1-p) + p = 1$ but in general $(1-p)^2 + p^2 neq 1$.
You should try to understand why marginalization works in the first place, it all comes back down to the following law of probability,
If $A, B$ are disjoint events then,
$$mathbb{P}(A cup B) = mathbb{P}(A) + mathbb{P}(B), (*)$$
From this we have that if $B_1, dots, B_n$ is a partition of the sample space, meaning
$$bigcup_{i=1}^n B_i = Omega, B_i cap B_j = emptyset, i neq j$$
Then we obtain by applying the additivity of probability $(*)$, since we have that,
$$A = A cap Omega = A cap bigcup_{i=1}^n B_i = bigcup_{i=1}^n A cap B_i $$
Then,
$$mathbb{P} (A) = sum_{i=1}^n mathbb{P}(A cap B_i) $$
Now, coming back to the language of events as values of random variables, how is this marginilisation? Consider $X$ as a discrete random variable taking values $x_1, dots , x_n$. Then the events, ${X = x_1 }, {X = x_2 }, dots , {X = x_n } $ constitute a partition of the sample space! (since the cases are exhaustive and disjoint).
So if we let $A = {Y = y}$ and $B_i = {X = x_i }$ we have the familiar procedure of "marginilisation"
$$mathbb{P} (Y = y) = sum_{i=1}^n mathbb{P}(Y = y, X = x_i), (**)$$
Note that this also works when there is a conditional probability as long as that conditional probability does not involve the variable you are marginilising over, again, try to link it back to the basics, a conditional event is of the form,
$$mathbb{P}(A | C) = frac{mathbb{P}(A cap C)}{mathbb{P}(C)} $$
For our marginilisation formula we have from $(**)$ that if we wanted to condition on $Z = z$ for example we can do the following,
$$mathbb{P} (Y = y, Z = z) = sum_{i=1}^n mathbb{P}(Y = y, X = x_i, Z = z)$$
Then we have,
$$frac{mathbb{P} (Y = y, Z = z)}{mathbb{P}(Z = z)} = sum_{i=1}^n frac{mathbb{P}(Y = y, X = x_i, Z = z)}{mathbb{P}(Z = z)}$$
So in fact we recover our "marginilisation" with just simple arithmetic,
$$mathbb{P}(Y = y | Z = z) = sum_{i=1}^n mathbb{P}(Y = y, X = x_i| Z = z)$$
In summary, when thinking about laws of probability, try to link it back to the fundamental laws of probability.
$endgroup$
$begingroup$
Great explanation! Though I don’t understand how you say A and B are disjoint if B is a partition of the sample space? Also I think there is a typo in the last formula.
$endgroup$
– Ferus
Dec 16 '18 at 23:44
$begingroup$
You're right there was a typo in the last formula. As for A and B being disjoint, that only refers to the formula (*), if A and B are disjoint then we can add the probabilities over them. $B$ cannot be a partition as it is a single set (unless $B = Omega$), but the sequence of events $B_1, B_2, dots , B_n$ can form a partition
$endgroup$
– symchdmath
Dec 16 '18 at 23:49
$begingroup$
Alright, thanks
$endgroup$
– Ferus
Dec 17 '18 at 0:03
add a comment |
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$begingroup$
The notation you use is a little ambiguous, but in general the way you describe it, it is incorrect. For example, take $X, Y, Z$ as discrete random variables that are independent. Let $X$ take values $x_1, dots , x_n$. According to your conjecture we should find that,
$$sum_{i=1}^n mathbb{P}(X = x_i, Y = y) mathbb{P}(X = x_i, Z = z) = mathbb{P}(Y=y) mathbb{P}(Z = z) $$
But this is false since if $X, Y, Z$ are independent we obtain,
$$sum_{i=1}^n mathbb{P}(X = x_i) mathbb{P}(Y = y) mathbb{P}(X = x_i) mathbb{P}(Z = z) = mathbb{P}(Y=y) mathbb{P}(Z = z) sum_{i=1}^n mathbb{P}(X = x_i)^2 $$
The sum of squares of the probabilities is not in general 1, take $X sim text{Bernoulli}(p)$ for example; that is, $X$ takes value $1$ with probability $p$ and $0$ with probability $(1-p)$. We do have that $(1-p) + p = 1$ but in general $(1-p)^2 + p^2 neq 1$.
You should try to understand why marginalization works in the first place, it all comes back down to the following law of probability,
If $A, B$ are disjoint events then,
$$mathbb{P}(A cup B) = mathbb{P}(A) + mathbb{P}(B), (*)$$
From this we have that if $B_1, dots, B_n$ is a partition of the sample space, meaning
$$bigcup_{i=1}^n B_i = Omega, B_i cap B_j = emptyset, i neq j$$
Then we obtain by applying the additivity of probability $(*)$, since we have that,
$$A = A cap Omega = A cap bigcup_{i=1}^n B_i = bigcup_{i=1}^n A cap B_i $$
Then,
$$mathbb{P} (A) = sum_{i=1}^n mathbb{P}(A cap B_i) $$
Now, coming back to the language of events as values of random variables, how is this marginilisation? Consider $X$ as a discrete random variable taking values $x_1, dots , x_n$. Then the events, ${X = x_1 }, {X = x_2 }, dots , {X = x_n } $ constitute a partition of the sample space! (since the cases are exhaustive and disjoint).
So if we let $A = {Y = y}$ and $B_i = {X = x_i }$ we have the familiar procedure of "marginilisation"
$$mathbb{P} (Y = y) = sum_{i=1}^n mathbb{P}(Y = y, X = x_i), (**)$$
Note that this also works when there is a conditional probability as long as that conditional probability does not involve the variable you are marginilising over, again, try to link it back to the basics, a conditional event is of the form,
$$mathbb{P}(A | C) = frac{mathbb{P}(A cap C)}{mathbb{P}(C)} $$
For our marginilisation formula we have from $(**)$ that if we wanted to condition on $Z = z$ for example we can do the following,
$$mathbb{P} (Y = y, Z = z) = sum_{i=1}^n mathbb{P}(Y = y, X = x_i, Z = z)$$
Then we have,
$$frac{mathbb{P} (Y = y, Z = z)}{mathbb{P}(Z = z)} = sum_{i=1}^n frac{mathbb{P}(Y = y, X = x_i, Z = z)}{mathbb{P}(Z = z)}$$
So in fact we recover our "marginilisation" with just simple arithmetic,
$$mathbb{P}(Y = y | Z = z) = sum_{i=1}^n mathbb{P}(Y = y, X = x_i| Z = z)$$
In summary, when thinking about laws of probability, try to link it back to the fundamental laws of probability.
$endgroup$
$begingroup$
Great explanation! Though I don’t understand how you say A and B are disjoint if B is a partition of the sample space? Also I think there is a typo in the last formula.
$endgroup$
– Ferus
Dec 16 '18 at 23:44
$begingroup$
You're right there was a typo in the last formula. As for A and B being disjoint, that only refers to the formula (*), if A and B are disjoint then we can add the probabilities over them. $B$ cannot be a partition as it is a single set (unless $B = Omega$), but the sequence of events $B_1, B_2, dots , B_n$ can form a partition
$endgroup$
– symchdmath
Dec 16 '18 at 23:49
$begingroup$
Alright, thanks
$endgroup$
– Ferus
Dec 17 '18 at 0:03
add a comment |
$begingroup$
The notation you use is a little ambiguous, but in general the way you describe it, it is incorrect. For example, take $X, Y, Z$ as discrete random variables that are independent. Let $X$ take values $x_1, dots , x_n$. According to your conjecture we should find that,
$$sum_{i=1}^n mathbb{P}(X = x_i, Y = y) mathbb{P}(X = x_i, Z = z) = mathbb{P}(Y=y) mathbb{P}(Z = z) $$
But this is false since if $X, Y, Z$ are independent we obtain,
$$sum_{i=1}^n mathbb{P}(X = x_i) mathbb{P}(Y = y) mathbb{P}(X = x_i) mathbb{P}(Z = z) = mathbb{P}(Y=y) mathbb{P}(Z = z) sum_{i=1}^n mathbb{P}(X = x_i)^2 $$
The sum of squares of the probabilities is not in general 1, take $X sim text{Bernoulli}(p)$ for example; that is, $X$ takes value $1$ with probability $p$ and $0$ with probability $(1-p)$. We do have that $(1-p) + p = 1$ but in general $(1-p)^2 + p^2 neq 1$.
You should try to understand why marginalization works in the first place, it all comes back down to the following law of probability,
If $A, B$ are disjoint events then,
$$mathbb{P}(A cup B) = mathbb{P}(A) + mathbb{P}(B), (*)$$
From this we have that if $B_1, dots, B_n$ is a partition of the sample space, meaning
$$bigcup_{i=1}^n B_i = Omega, B_i cap B_j = emptyset, i neq j$$
Then we obtain by applying the additivity of probability $(*)$, since we have that,
$$A = A cap Omega = A cap bigcup_{i=1}^n B_i = bigcup_{i=1}^n A cap B_i $$
Then,
$$mathbb{P} (A) = sum_{i=1}^n mathbb{P}(A cap B_i) $$
Now, coming back to the language of events as values of random variables, how is this marginilisation? Consider $X$ as a discrete random variable taking values $x_1, dots , x_n$. Then the events, ${X = x_1 }, {X = x_2 }, dots , {X = x_n } $ constitute a partition of the sample space! (since the cases are exhaustive and disjoint).
So if we let $A = {Y = y}$ and $B_i = {X = x_i }$ we have the familiar procedure of "marginilisation"
$$mathbb{P} (Y = y) = sum_{i=1}^n mathbb{P}(Y = y, X = x_i), (**)$$
Note that this also works when there is a conditional probability as long as that conditional probability does not involve the variable you are marginilising over, again, try to link it back to the basics, a conditional event is of the form,
$$mathbb{P}(A | C) = frac{mathbb{P}(A cap C)}{mathbb{P}(C)} $$
For our marginilisation formula we have from $(**)$ that if we wanted to condition on $Z = z$ for example we can do the following,
$$mathbb{P} (Y = y, Z = z) = sum_{i=1}^n mathbb{P}(Y = y, X = x_i, Z = z)$$
Then we have,
$$frac{mathbb{P} (Y = y, Z = z)}{mathbb{P}(Z = z)} = sum_{i=1}^n frac{mathbb{P}(Y = y, X = x_i, Z = z)}{mathbb{P}(Z = z)}$$
So in fact we recover our "marginilisation" with just simple arithmetic,
$$mathbb{P}(Y = y | Z = z) = sum_{i=1}^n mathbb{P}(Y = y, X = x_i| Z = z)$$
In summary, when thinking about laws of probability, try to link it back to the fundamental laws of probability.
$endgroup$
$begingroup$
Great explanation! Though I don’t understand how you say A and B are disjoint if B is a partition of the sample space? Also I think there is a typo in the last formula.
$endgroup$
– Ferus
Dec 16 '18 at 23:44
$begingroup$
You're right there was a typo in the last formula. As for A and B being disjoint, that only refers to the formula (*), if A and B are disjoint then we can add the probabilities over them. $B$ cannot be a partition as it is a single set (unless $B = Omega$), but the sequence of events $B_1, B_2, dots , B_n$ can form a partition
$endgroup$
– symchdmath
Dec 16 '18 at 23:49
$begingroup$
Alright, thanks
$endgroup$
– Ferus
Dec 17 '18 at 0:03
add a comment |
$begingroup$
The notation you use is a little ambiguous, but in general the way you describe it, it is incorrect. For example, take $X, Y, Z$ as discrete random variables that are independent. Let $X$ take values $x_1, dots , x_n$. According to your conjecture we should find that,
$$sum_{i=1}^n mathbb{P}(X = x_i, Y = y) mathbb{P}(X = x_i, Z = z) = mathbb{P}(Y=y) mathbb{P}(Z = z) $$
But this is false since if $X, Y, Z$ are independent we obtain,
$$sum_{i=1}^n mathbb{P}(X = x_i) mathbb{P}(Y = y) mathbb{P}(X = x_i) mathbb{P}(Z = z) = mathbb{P}(Y=y) mathbb{P}(Z = z) sum_{i=1}^n mathbb{P}(X = x_i)^2 $$
The sum of squares of the probabilities is not in general 1, take $X sim text{Bernoulli}(p)$ for example; that is, $X$ takes value $1$ with probability $p$ and $0$ with probability $(1-p)$. We do have that $(1-p) + p = 1$ but in general $(1-p)^2 + p^2 neq 1$.
You should try to understand why marginalization works in the first place, it all comes back down to the following law of probability,
If $A, B$ are disjoint events then,
$$mathbb{P}(A cup B) = mathbb{P}(A) + mathbb{P}(B), (*)$$
From this we have that if $B_1, dots, B_n$ is a partition of the sample space, meaning
$$bigcup_{i=1}^n B_i = Omega, B_i cap B_j = emptyset, i neq j$$
Then we obtain by applying the additivity of probability $(*)$, since we have that,
$$A = A cap Omega = A cap bigcup_{i=1}^n B_i = bigcup_{i=1}^n A cap B_i $$
Then,
$$mathbb{P} (A) = sum_{i=1}^n mathbb{P}(A cap B_i) $$
Now, coming back to the language of events as values of random variables, how is this marginilisation? Consider $X$ as a discrete random variable taking values $x_1, dots , x_n$. Then the events, ${X = x_1 }, {X = x_2 }, dots , {X = x_n } $ constitute a partition of the sample space! (since the cases are exhaustive and disjoint).
So if we let $A = {Y = y}$ and $B_i = {X = x_i }$ we have the familiar procedure of "marginilisation"
$$mathbb{P} (Y = y) = sum_{i=1}^n mathbb{P}(Y = y, X = x_i), (**)$$
Note that this also works when there is a conditional probability as long as that conditional probability does not involve the variable you are marginilising over, again, try to link it back to the basics, a conditional event is of the form,
$$mathbb{P}(A | C) = frac{mathbb{P}(A cap C)}{mathbb{P}(C)} $$
For our marginilisation formula we have from $(**)$ that if we wanted to condition on $Z = z$ for example we can do the following,
$$mathbb{P} (Y = y, Z = z) = sum_{i=1}^n mathbb{P}(Y = y, X = x_i, Z = z)$$
Then we have,
$$frac{mathbb{P} (Y = y, Z = z)}{mathbb{P}(Z = z)} = sum_{i=1}^n frac{mathbb{P}(Y = y, X = x_i, Z = z)}{mathbb{P}(Z = z)}$$
So in fact we recover our "marginilisation" with just simple arithmetic,
$$mathbb{P}(Y = y | Z = z) = sum_{i=1}^n mathbb{P}(Y = y, X = x_i| Z = z)$$
In summary, when thinking about laws of probability, try to link it back to the fundamental laws of probability.
$endgroup$
The notation you use is a little ambiguous, but in general the way you describe it, it is incorrect. For example, take $X, Y, Z$ as discrete random variables that are independent. Let $X$ take values $x_1, dots , x_n$. According to your conjecture we should find that,
$$sum_{i=1}^n mathbb{P}(X = x_i, Y = y) mathbb{P}(X = x_i, Z = z) = mathbb{P}(Y=y) mathbb{P}(Z = z) $$
But this is false since if $X, Y, Z$ are independent we obtain,
$$sum_{i=1}^n mathbb{P}(X = x_i) mathbb{P}(Y = y) mathbb{P}(X = x_i) mathbb{P}(Z = z) = mathbb{P}(Y=y) mathbb{P}(Z = z) sum_{i=1}^n mathbb{P}(X = x_i)^2 $$
The sum of squares of the probabilities is not in general 1, take $X sim text{Bernoulli}(p)$ for example; that is, $X$ takes value $1$ with probability $p$ and $0$ with probability $(1-p)$. We do have that $(1-p) + p = 1$ but in general $(1-p)^2 + p^2 neq 1$.
You should try to understand why marginalization works in the first place, it all comes back down to the following law of probability,
If $A, B$ are disjoint events then,
$$mathbb{P}(A cup B) = mathbb{P}(A) + mathbb{P}(B), (*)$$
From this we have that if $B_1, dots, B_n$ is a partition of the sample space, meaning
$$bigcup_{i=1}^n B_i = Omega, B_i cap B_j = emptyset, i neq j$$
Then we obtain by applying the additivity of probability $(*)$, since we have that,
$$A = A cap Omega = A cap bigcup_{i=1}^n B_i = bigcup_{i=1}^n A cap B_i $$
Then,
$$mathbb{P} (A) = sum_{i=1}^n mathbb{P}(A cap B_i) $$
Now, coming back to the language of events as values of random variables, how is this marginilisation? Consider $X$ as a discrete random variable taking values $x_1, dots , x_n$. Then the events, ${X = x_1 }, {X = x_2 }, dots , {X = x_n } $ constitute a partition of the sample space! (since the cases are exhaustive and disjoint).
So if we let $A = {Y = y}$ and $B_i = {X = x_i }$ we have the familiar procedure of "marginilisation"
$$mathbb{P} (Y = y) = sum_{i=1}^n mathbb{P}(Y = y, X = x_i), (**)$$
Note that this also works when there is a conditional probability as long as that conditional probability does not involve the variable you are marginilising over, again, try to link it back to the basics, a conditional event is of the form,
$$mathbb{P}(A | C) = frac{mathbb{P}(A cap C)}{mathbb{P}(C)} $$
For our marginilisation formula we have from $(**)$ that if we wanted to condition on $Z = z$ for example we can do the following,
$$mathbb{P} (Y = y, Z = z) = sum_{i=1}^n mathbb{P}(Y = y, X = x_i, Z = z)$$
Then we have,
$$frac{mathbb{P} (Y = y, Z = z)}{mathbb{P}(Z = z)} = sum_{i=1}^n frac{mathbb{P}(Y = y, X = x_i, Z = z)}{mathbb{P}(Z = z)}$$
So in fact we recover our "marginilisation" with just simple arithmetic,
$$mathbb{P}(Y = y | Z = z) = sum_{i=1}^n mathbb{P}(Y = y, X = x_i| Z = z)$$
In summary, when thinking about laws of probability, try to link it back to the fundamental laws of probability.
edited Dec 16 '18 at 23:48
answered Dec 16 '18 at 21:40
symchdmathsymchdmath
39816
39816
$begingroup$
Great explanation! Though I don’t understand how you say A and B are disjoint if B is a partition of the sample space? Also I think there is a typo in the last formula.
$endgroup$
– Ferus
Dec 16 '18 at 23:44
$begingroup$
You're right there was a typo in the last formula. As for A and B being disjoint, that only refers to the formula (*), if A and B are disjoint then we can add the probabilities over them. $B$ cannot be a partition as it is a single set (unless $B = Omega$), but the sequence of events $B_1, B_2, dots , B_n$ can form a partition
$endgroup$
– symchdmath
Dec 16 '18 at 23:49
$begingroup$
Alright, thanks
$endgroup$
– Ferus
Dec 17 '18 at 0:03
add a comment |
$begingroup$
Great explanation! Though I don’t understand how you say A and B are disjoint if B is a partition of the sample space? Also I think there is a typo in the last formula.
$endgroup$
– Ferus
Dec 16 '18 at 23:44
$begingroup$
You're right there was a typo in the last formula. As for A and B being disjoint, that only refers to the formula (*), if A and B are disjoint then we can add the probabilities over them. $B$ cannot be a partition as it is a single set (unless $B = Omega$), but the sequence of events $B_1, B_2, dots , B_n$ can form a partition
$endgroup$
– symchdmath
Dec 16 '18 at 23:49
$begingroup$
Alright, thanks
$endgroup$
– Ferus
Dec 17 '18 at 0:03
$begingroup$
Great explanation! Though I don’t understand how you say A and B are disjoint if B is a partition of the sample space? Also I think there is a typo in the last formula.
$endgroup$
– Ferus
Dec 16 '18 at 23:44
$begingroup$
Great explanation! Though I don’t understand how you say A and B are disjoint if B is a partition of the sample space? Also I think there is a typo in the last formula.
$endgroup$
– Ferus
Dec 16 '18 at 23:44
$begingroup$
You're right there was a typo in the last formula. As for A and B being disjoint, that only refers to the formula (*), if A and B are disjoint then we can add the probabilities over them. $B$ cannot be a partition as it is a single set (unless $B = Omega$), but the sequence of events $B_1, B_2, dots , B_n$ can form a partition
$endgroup$
– symchdmath
Dec 16 '18 at 23:49
$begingroup$
You're right there was a typo in the last formula. As for A and B being disjoint, that only refers to the formula (*), if A and B are disjoint then we can add the probabilities over them. $B$ cannot be a partition as it is a single set (unless $B = Omega$), but the sequence of events $B_1, B_2, dots , B_n$ can form a partition
$endgroup$
– symchdmath
Dec 16 '18 at 23:49
$begingroup$
Alright, thanks
$endgroup$
– Ferus
Dec 17 '18 at 0:03
$begingroup$
Alright, thanks
$endgroup$
– Ferus
Dec 17 '18 at 0:03
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